The Biggest Bluff

Maria Konnikova

We often believe we have a lot of control over events but we fail to factor in how much luck plays a role in our life
When we overestimate our ability in comparison to luck, we learn less from the environment
Early success makes us remove the understanding of luck from the equation. Toss a coin and get the first few right, you believe you are actually good at predicting a coin toss
When learning, if we have a real stake in what we're learning then we are more likely to retain that information better
Things need to go wrong before understanding how much we can take
We need to maximise benefit in circumstances that are advantageous to us while minimising loss during disadvantaged times
Similar to the concept described about early success, when success is happening due to chance we often forget that something bad can happen. An opposite of the Gambler's Fallacy
Be wary of your emotional state and how that affects you. Your emotional state can compound and make you begin to feel badly
To truly understand the behaviours of other people, firstly you need to understand your own behaviours and what causes them
We often think of what the best-case scenario is going into activities but we don't often extrapolate the past to determine what challenges we may face
Emotions are not often part of a rational decision process - they should be dismissed as sources of information